Bayesian coronal seismology

In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.     

Empirical model of the high-latitude boundary of the Earth’s outer radiation belt at altitudes of up to 1000 km

An empirical model of the high-latitude boundary of the outer Earth’s radiation belt (ERB) has been presented, which is based on the measurement data of electron fluxes on the polar low-orbit CORONAS-Photon, Meteor-M1, and Meteor-M2 satellites. The boundary was determined by a sharp decrease to the background level of the flux of trapped electrons with energies of 100 or 200 keV in the polar part of the profile of the outer radiation belt. A numerical algorithm has been implemented to determine the time moment, when the fastest flux changes are recorded. The primary search was carried out, first, on 30 s averaged data, then repeated on data with a higher resolution. A functional dependence was obtained in order to approximate the obtained set of intersections of the boundary by elliptical curve. The empirical model constructed using the CORONAS-Photon measurement data in the epoch of anomalously low geomagnetic activity reflects the longitude structure of the high-latitude boundary of the outer radiation belt associated with the internal Earth’s magnetic field (MF), as well as its dependence on the universal time. Based on the data of intersections of the high-latitude boundary of the outer ERB (OERB) in the epoch of 2014–2016, the latitudinal shift of the boundary to the equator dependent on geomagnetic activity has been determined, as well as the nightside shift of the boundary due to the diurnal rotation of the Earth.     

Impact of rain on wave retrieval from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar images in tropical cyclones

The main objective of our work was to investigate the impact of rain on wave observations from C-band (~5.3 GHz) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in tropical cyclones. In this study, 10 Sentinel-1 SAR images were available from the Satellite Hurricane Observation Campaign, which were taken under cyclonic conditions during the 2016 hurricane season. The third-generation wave model, known as Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) (version 41.31), was used to simulate the wave fields corresponding to these Sentinel-1 SAR images. In addition, rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite passing over the spatial coverage of the Sentinel-1 SAR images were collected. The simulated results were validated against significant wave heights (SWHs) from the Jason-2 altimeter and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data, revealing a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~0.5 m with a 0.25 scatter index. Winds retrieved from the VH-polarized Sentinel-1 SAR images using the Sentinel-1 Extra Wide-swath Mode Wind Speed Retrieval Model after Noise Removal were taken as prior information for wave retrieval. It was discovered that rain did indeed affect the SAR wave retrieval, as evidenced by the 3.21-m RMSE of SWHs between the SAR images and the SWAN model, which was obtained for the ~1000 match-ups with raindrops. The raindrops dampened the wave retrieval when the rain rate was < ~5 mm/hr; however, they enhanced wave retrieval for higher rain rates. It was also found that the portion of the rain-induced ring wave with a wave number > 0.05 rad/m (~125 m wavelength) was clearly observed in the SAR-derived wave spectra.     

Observations of a quasi-90-day oscillation in the MLT winds and tides over an equatorial station using meteor radar winds

An evident signature of a least studied quasi-90-day oscillation is found in the winds and tides in the MLT from an equatorial station, São João do Cariri (7.4°S, 36.5°W). The oscillation is found to appear mainly in certain intervals with small but appreciable seasonal (fourth harmonic of annual oscillation) contribution. The maximum amplitude of the oscillation is found to be around 10 m/s in the zonal wind. The enhancement peak of the oscillation exhibits downward movement indicating a plausible role of upward moving waves/tides in carrying its imprint from below to the MLT. Similar oscillation feature in the tropospheric zonal wind and ozone may imply its lower atmospheric origin as a component of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) that moves upward by modulating the tides. Subsequently, the propagating tides (mainly semidiurnal) are enhanced by the ozone in the stratosphere through absorption of solar UV radiation and finally manifest the oscillation in the MLT. Consistency of the present findings with the past investigations are observed in some aspects of the oscillation, whereas existing mismatches in others are believed to be due to geophysical variability depending on space and time among various locations on the globe.     

Impact of geomagnetic variation over sub-auroral ionospheric region during high solar activity year 2014

The present work is an attempt to evaluate the impact of changing space weather condition over sub-auroral ionosphere during high solar activity year 2014. In view of this, the GPS based TEC along with Ionosonde data over Indian permanent scientific base “Maitri”, Antarctica (70°46′00″S, 11°43′56″E) has been utilized. The results suggested that the nature of ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic disturbances not only depended upon the status of high latitudinal electro-dynamic processes but also influenced by the seasonal variations. The results revel both negative and positive type of ionospheric response in a single year but during different seasons. The study suggested that the combination of equator-ward plasma transportation along with ionospheric compositional changes causes a negative ionospheric impact especially during summer and equinox seasons. However, the combination of pole-ward contraction of the oval region along with particle precipitation may lead to exhibit positive ionospheric response during the winter season. The plasma transportation direction has been validated with the help of convection boundary (HM boundary) deduced with the help of SuperDARN observations. The ground based ionosonde observations clearly provided the evidence of deep penetration of high energetic particles up to the E-layer heights which results a sudden and strong appearance of E-layer. The strengthening of E-layer is responsible for modification of auroral electrojet and field-aligned current system. Also, the sudden appearance of E-layer along with a decrease in F-layer electron density suggested the dominance of NO⁺ over O⁺ in a considered region under geomagnetic disturbed condition.     

Mechanism of error propagation from the subdaily Universal Time model into the celestial pole offsets estimated by VLBI

Within the analysis of space geodetic observations, errors of the applied subdaily Earth rotation model can induce systematic effects in different estimated parameters. In this paper, we focus on the impact of the subdaily Universal Time (UT1) model on the celestial pole offsets (CPO) estimated from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations. We provide a mechanism that describes the error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO.In typical 24-h VLBI sessions the observed quasars are well distributed over the sky. But the observations, if looked at from the Earth-fixed frame, are not homogeneously distributed. The amount of observations performed in different terrestrial directions shows an irregularity which can be roughly compared to the case where the observations are collected in only one Earth-fixed direction. This peculiarity leads to artefacts in VLBI solutions, producing a correlation between the subdaily variations in UT1 and the position of the celestial pole. As a result errors in diurnal terms of the subdaily UT1 model are partly compensated by the estimated CPO. We compute for each 24-h VLBI session from 1990 until 2011 the theoretical response of the CPO to an error in the subdaily UT1 by setting up a least-squares adjustment model and using as input the coordinates of the observed quasars and observation epochs. Then real observed response of the estimated CPO derived from the VLBI session solutions is compared to the predicted one. A very good agreement between the CPO values estimated from VLBI and the predicted values was achieved. The presented model of error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO allows to predict and explain the behaviour of CPO estimates of VLBI solutions computed with different subdaily Earth rotation models, what can be helpful for testing the accuracy of different subdaily tidal models.     

OSIRIS-REx low-velocity particles during outbound cruise

We analyzed high-angular rate streaks first recorded by OSIRIS-REx’s MapCam during a 2017 search for Earth Trojan asteroids. We interpret them as water-ice particles that translated across the imager’s field of view, originating from the spacecraft itself. Their translation velocities approximated 0.1–1?m/s based on reasonable conclusions about their range. Pursuing several lines of investigation to seek a coherent hypothesis, we conclude that the episodic releases of the water ice particles are associated with spacecraft attitudes that resulted in solar illumination of previously shadowed regions. This correlation suggests that the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft itself possesses micro-climatic zones consisting of hot regions and cold traps that may temporarily potentially pass volatiles back and forth before losing most of them.     

Modeling visuospatial reasoning

I apply my proposed modification of Soar/Spatial/Visual System and Kosslyn’s (1983) computational operations on images to problems within a 2 × 2 taxonomy that classifies research according to whether the coding involves static or dynamic relations within an object or between objects (Newcombe & Shipley, 2015). I then repeat this analysis for problems that are included in mathematics and science curricula. Because many of these problems involve reasoning from diagrams Hegarty’s (2011) framework for reasoning from visual-spatial displays provides additional support for organizing this topic. Two more relevant frameworks specify reasoning at different levels of abstraction (Reed, 2016) and with different combinations of actions and objects (Reed, 2018). The article concludes with suggestions for future directions.